Strategy Qualifies for S&P 500, Inclusion Decision Could Come on Friday
After delivering a record-breaking quarter and significantly expanding its bitcoin holdings, Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) is now fully aligned with the criteria for inclusion in the S&P 500. The company’s strong performance, combined with its growing crypto treasury, has put it squarely on the index committee’s radar as it prepares for its early-September review. Analysts see this as a major milestone, reflecting both Strategy’s robust financials and the increasing mainstream acceptance of crypto-linked assets.
A decision could come as early as this Friday, potentially marking a historic moment for U.S. equities integrated with digital assets. Inclusion in the S&P 500 would not only validate Strategy’s market position but also signal wider recognition for bitcoin-backed corporate strategies, setting a precedent for other crypto-influenced firms.
What to know
Q2 2025 results: $14B operating income, $10B net income; diluted EPS $32.6.
Revenue: $114.5M (+2.7% YoY); subscription services nearly +70% YoY.
Bitcoin holdings: 597,325 BTC; BTC Yield 19.7% YTD (BTC vs. diluted shares KPI).
Guidance (FY 2025, company assumptions): $34B operating income, $24B net income, $80 diluted EPS (assumes year-end BTC at $150K).
Index timing: September 2025 window; announcements expected Sept. 5; changes effective Sept. 19 (committee retains full discretion).
Why this quarter matters
Strategy delivered one of its strongest quarters ever, reporting $14 billion in operating income and $10 billion in net income on $114.5 million in revenue. Revenue growth was modest overall, but subscription services surged nearly 70% year over year—evidence the software engine is humming even as the balance sheet is increasingly dominated by digital assets. The sheer scale of profitability has put Strategy S&P 500 inclusion squarely on the table.
Accounting shift unlocked crypto-driven profitability
Beginning January 2025, new fair-value accounting for digital assets allowed companies to recognize unrealized gains and losses each period. With bitcoin trading above $100,000 in Q2, Strategy’s holdings generated sizable paper gains that flowed through earnings, reversing years when impairment charges depressed results. As of June 30, Strategy held 597,325 BTC and reported a 19.7% BTC Yield year-to-date, its internal KPI tracking bitcoin growth relative to diluted shares.
Does Strategy meet S&P 500 criteria?
Yes on paper. The company is U.S.-listed with market cap well above the threshold, ample trading liquidity, public float above 50%, and crucially positive GAAP earnings both in the latest quarter and on a trailing 12-month basis. That checks the quantitative boxes for Strategy S&P 500 inclusion, though the S&P Dow Jones Indices committee has latitude to weigh qualitative factors.
When could the decision arrive?
The next rebalance window is September 2025, with announcements expected Friday, Sept. 5, and index changes scheduled to take effect Friday, Sept. 19. If Strategy S&P 500 inclusion is confirmed, passive index funds and benchmark-tracking portfolios would need to add shares ahead of the effective date, potentially amplifying trading volumes.
What it would mean for markets
If added, Strategy would be the first U.S. large-cap company whose treasury strategy is centered on bitcoin to join the benchmark. That would mark a symbolic milestone for the integration of digital assets into mainstream equity indices. It could also tighten the correlation narrative between bitcoin and certain corners of U.S. equities—an angle investors will watch closely should Strategy S&P 500 inclusion proceed.
Outlook and risks
Management’s updated 2025 outlook $34B operating income, $24B net income, and $80 diluted EPS assumes bitcoin ends the year near $150,000. That leaves results sensitive to BTC price moves and fair-value swings. Moreover, Strategy S&P 500 inclusion is not guaranteed; the committee’s discretionary framework can delay or deny candidates even when they meet published guidelines.
Conclusion
Momentum is firmly with Strategy, fueled by record profitability, rising subscription growth, and an expanding bitcoin treasury. These strong fundamentals have positioned the company as a top contender for S&P 500 inclusion, drawing attention from both investors and market watchers.
As the September review window opens, the possibility of Strategy joining the S&P 500 becomes real. Such a move could have far-reaching implications, influencing index investing trends and accelerating the convergence of traditional equities with crypto assets. Inclusion would not only validate Strategy’s performance but also set a benchmark for other firms bridging digital assets and mainstream markets.
FAQs
Q1 . When could the Strategy S&P 500 inclusion be announced?
A : Announcements are expected Friday, Sept. 5, with changes effective Friday, Sept. 19, if Strategy S&P 500 inclusion proceeds.
Q2 . What criteria support Strategy S&P 500 inclusion now?
A : U.S. listing, large market cap, high liquidity, public float above 50%, and positive earnings in the latest quarter and TTM all support Strategy S&P 500 inclusion.
Q3 . How did accounting changes affect Strategy S&P 500 inclusion odds?
A : Fair-value accounting lets BTC gains flow through earnings, boosting profitability—a key factor for Strategy S&P 500 inclusion.
Q4 . Would Strategy S&P 500 inclusion impact bitcoin markets?
A : It could increase attention and flows to crypto-linked equities; Strategy S&P 500 inclusion would be a milestone for digital assets in benchmarks.