Prediction Markets Say U.S. Government Shutdown Days From Ending as Health Care Fight Looms
The record-long U.S. government shutdown appears close to ending after the Senate passed a bipartisan funding bill by a 60–40 vote, extending government operations through January 30. The House is now preparing to vote, while prediction markets increasingly expect the shutdown to conclude by mid-November, signaling relief for federal workers and markets alike.
However, the deal only provides a temporary solution. Lawmakers will revisit key disputes in December, particularly the ongoing battle over Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies that helped trigger the standoff. The short-term funding extension avoids immediate economic fallout but sets the stage for another heated fiscal debate later this year, as Congress faces renewed pressure to balance healthcare spending priorities with broader budget negotiations.
Senate action and next steps
The Senate approved a package combining full-year appropriations with a short-term bridge to Jan 30. The measure now heads to the House; Speaker Mike Johnson has indicated interest in moving it quickly, after which President Donald Trump would need to sign it. The Washington Post+2Al Jazeera+2
What’s in and out of the bill
Keeps federal agencies open and restores back pay/benefits.
Excludes
An extension of enhanced ACA premium subsidies; leadership has pledged a separate December vote.
Markets: prediction markets say US government shutdown ending
Traders are pricing an imminent resolution
Polymarket
Contracts show ~96% odds of reopening between Nov 12–15.
Kalshi
Duration markets imply an end in the next few days after the Senate vote momentum.
How markets inform expectations
Prediction markets aggregate views from participants staking capital on outcomes. Recent shifts followed the Senate’s 60–40 vote and reports of House timing, pushing probabilities toward a near-certain mid-November reopening.
Health care fight ahead
Even with reopening likely, Congress must still resolve whether to extend enhanced ACA subsidies that are expiring. Johnson has resisted promising a House vote as part of the shutdown deal; Senate leaders signaled a December debate. Stakeholders warn of higher 2026 premiums if subsidies lapse.
Context & Analysis
The Senate’s bipartisan margin and market repricing point to a short runway for House action. However, separating the ACA subsidies from the reopening bill preserves a live fault line. If premiums rise into 2026 without relief, both parties could face electoral consequences, a dynamic already reflected in split-outcome odds for next year’s midterms.
Conclusion
All indicators suggest the U.S. government will reopen by mid-November, following progress in the Senate and optimism in prediction markets. The move would end the record-long shutdown, easing uncertainty for federal employees, investors, and businesses affected by the prolonged standoff.
Yet the real political challenge remains ahead. In December, Congress must confront the unresolved dispute over Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies the core issue behind the impasse. Whether lawmakers can reach a lasting compromise without sparking another round of fiscal brinkmanship will determine if this reopening marks true stability or just a brief pause before renewed tensions.
FAQs
Q : When could the government reopen?
A : Markets and reports point to mid-November, pending House passage and the president’s signature.
Q : What did the Senate pass?
A : A bipartisan bill funding government operations through Jan 30; it passed 60–40.
Q : What about ACA subsidies?
A : They’re not in the bill; leaders indicated a separate December vote.
Q : Why do prediction markets matter here?
A : They aggregate real-time expectations with money at stake; right now, prediction markets say the US government shutdown will end within days.
Q : Could this stall in the House?
A : Yes; leadership signals speed, but floor dynamics can shift.
Q : Will back pay be provided?
A : Yes, the Senate plan includes back pay as part of reopening terms.
Q : What happens if subsidies lapse?
A : Premiums could rise in 2026 for many marketplace enrollees absent an extension.
Facts
Event
Senate passes/advances bill to end record-long shutdown; markets price near-term reopeningDate/Time
2025-11-11T00:00:00+05:00Entities
U.S. Senate; U.S. House of Representatives; President Donald Trump; Speaker Mike Johnson; Polymarket; Kalshi; Affordable Care Act (ACA)Figures
Senate vote 60–40; Polymarket ~96% odds of Nov 12–15 reopening; funding through Jan 30. The Washington Post+1Quotes
“A separate vote in December” on ACA subsidies (leadership pledge reported). The Washington PostSources
Washington Post (vote detail) + URL; Reuters (market/pricing + House timing) + URL