Peter Brandt sees next BTC peak in 2029 as altseason doubts grow
The crypto altseason 2026 narrative faces skepticism. In remarks relayed via Cointelegraph, CoinEx Research chief analyst Jeff Ko said retail investors expecting a rising tide across altcoins “will be disappointed,” projecting no traditional altseason and ruthlessly selective liquidity favoring blue-chip survivors with real-world traction.
He added a base case of Bitcoin targeting $180,000 by 2026, while suggesting BTC’s historic link to M2 money supply has weakened since the 2024 spot-ETF era.
Why a broad altseason may not materialize
Ko argues that macro tailwinds in 2026 could be modest and uneven across regions as central bank policies diverge. In such an environment, capital tends to prioritize market leaders—BTC, ETH, and select large-cap ecosystems—over speculative long-tail tokens. Separate market commentary this year has also questioned the reliability of M2 correlations for timing crypto cycles, aligning with Ko’s view of a diminished BTC–M2 relationship post-ETFs. Phemex
Crypto altseason 2026: what the bear-case looks like
Veteran trader Peter Brandt known for identifying BTC’s parabolic phases contends the current cycle may stretch out, projecting the next bull-market peak around September 2029. Brandt’s work emphasizes that each past parabola was followed by drawdowns of 80%+, and his recent posts warn that breaches of parabolic advances could imply downside scenarios toward the $25,000 area before the next leg higher.
Market seasonality vs. 2025 reality
Historically, Q4 is Bitcoin’s strongest quarter 8 of the past 12 Q4s were positive, often by large margins. Yet this year’s quarter has been unusually weak so far, undercutting the typical end-of-year momentum and reinforcing the case for selectivity rather than a generalized altcoin surge.
Where liquidity could concentrate
Bitcoin (BTC)
Macro narrative, institutional adoption post-ETFs, store-of-value positioning.
Ethereum (ETH)
On-chain settlement, L2 scaling, and fee-market reforms.
Select “blue-chip” ecosystems
Networks with clear usage metrics, developer traction, and cash-flow-linked tokens.
This framework mirrors Ko’s “blue-chip survivors” thesis and suggests screening for real adoption over speculative narratives.
Analysis (labeled)
Ko’s call for no traditional altseason hinges on selective liquidity and utility-driven flows—consistent with the institutionalization of crypto since spot-ETF approvals. Brandt’s longer timeline and drawdown risk temper the 2026 bull thesis. Together, they imply leaders may outperform, while many altcoins could underperform or fail, especially if macro conditions remain choppy.
Conclusion
The debate around the 2026 crypto altseason now centers on two key signals. First, the market is becoming more selective, with attention shifting toward blue-chip digital assets that show genuine adoption and stronger fundamentals. Investors are prioritizing projects that demonstrate long-term value rather than hype-driven momentum.
Second, many analysts believe the current cycle may extend further, delaying broader altcoin gains until later in the decade. This extended timeline puts pressure on altcoins to prove themselves through real user growth, sustainable revenue models, and overall network resilience. Only projects that meet these expectations are likely to outperform moving forward.
FAQs
Q : Will there be a crypto altseason 2026?
A : CoinEx’s Jeff Ko expects no traditional altseason, with liquidity favoring blue-chip assets.
Q : Which assets could attract most liquidity next year?
A : Likely BTC, ETH, and a few large-cap ecosystems with real adoption and revenues.
Q : When might Bitcoin peak next?
A : Peter Brandt projects a bull-market high around September 2029.
Q : Is Bitcoin still tightly correlated with M2 money supply?
A : Analysts increasingly question the strength and timing of that correlation in the ETF era.
Q : How strong is Q4 seasonality for BTC?
A: Historically strong 8 of the past 12 Q4s were positive but 2025’s Q4 has underperformed so far.
Q : Could BTC revisit $25,000?
A: Brandt notes broken parabolic structures can precede deep drawdowns, with ~$25K mentioned as a scenario.
Q : What’s the main risk to altcoins in 2026?
A : Selective liquidity and tighter risk budgets may starve long-tail tokens lacking clear adoption.
Facts
Event
Analysts debate likelihood of crypto altseason 2026; Ko tips blue-chip dominance; Brandt eyes 2029 BTC peak.Date/Time
2025-12-23T12:00:00+05:00Entities
CoinEx Research (Jeff Ko); Bitcoin (BTC); Peter Brandt; Cointelegraph.Figures
BTC $180,000 target by 2026 (Ko); possible $25,000 downside scenario (Brandt); 8/12 positive Q4s historically (BTC).Quotes
“We predict no traditional altseason; liquidity will be ruthlessly selective, flowing only to blue-chip survivors with real adoption.” Jeff Ko (to Cointelegraph). TradingViewSources
Cointelegraph via TradingView (news) + URL; Peter Brandt on X + URL.