Fed hikes and a Bitcoin bull market the counterintuitive catalyst
Bitcoin’s next major rally may not depend on looser monetary policy. In a recent interview, ProCap Financial Chief Investment Officer Jeff Park suggested that Bitcoin could enter a new bull market phase even without interest rate cuts. According to Park, BTC has the potential to rise alongside Federal Reserve rate hikes, challenging the long-standing assumption that risk assets only perform well when borrowing costs fall. This perspective signals a possible structural shift in how Bitcoin responds to macroeconomic conditions.
Park described this scenario as Bitcoin’s potential “endgame,” where the asset no longer follows the traditional “rates down, risk up” narrative. Instead, Bitcoin could increasingly be viewed as a resilient, independent asset class that attracts demand regardless of tighter monetary policy. If this thesis plays out, it would mark a significant evolution in Bitcoin’s role within global financial markets.
Why a “Bitcoin bull market without rate cuts” matters
Park contends the core Bitcoin thesis evolves if BTC climbs as the Fed tightens. In that scenario, he says, BTC’s behavior would break from the classic “risk asset” pattern tied to easy money and instead reflect a market repricing of money, credit, and sovereign risk“the mythical, elusive perfect holy grail.”
He adds that such a shift would challenge the idea of a true “risk-free rate” and the durability of dollar hegemony, implying investors could treat BTC as a macro hedge whose demand persists even when yields rise.
Signals to watch for a Bitcoin bull market without rate cuts
BTC maintaining higher highs through periods of rising policy rates and term yields.
Diminishing correlation between BTC and broad risk proxies when financial conditions tighten.
Sticky demand (e.g., from institutions or sovereign entities) that is less sensitive to marginal funding costs.
Stable or rising on-chain accumulation during rate-hike cycles.
(Context for price backdrop: BTC recently rebounded above $70K after sharp volatility.)
What Park actually said
“We should expect that having more accommodative policies may not be the catalyst to help us go into a bull market.”
The “perfect holy grail … is when Bitcoin goes up as interest rates go up.”
That world “undermine[s] the ‘risk-free rate’ itself” and suggests the monetary system “is broken.”
Market expectations and price context
Traders on Polymarket currently assign the highest probability about 27% to three total Fed cuts in 2026, highlighting uncertainty over the policy path that typically anchors crypto narratives.
At the time of the cited article’s publication, BTC was $70,503, down 22.53% over 30 days (CoinMarketCap).
How the thesis contrasts with the prior cycle
Historically, BTC has benefited when liquidity expands and real yields fall. Park’s view suggests a potential decoupling: if structural demand (e.g., balance-sheet allocation, reserves, or long-duration holders) dominates, BTC could appreciate despite higher nominal rates, reframing it as a macro asset less reliant on policy easing.
Context & Analysis
If BTC can sustain strength during tightening, it would reinforce a narrative of monetary regime hedge rather than pure liquidity beta. Yet, empirical confirmation requires multiple hike-windows where BTC makes higher highs while real yields rise something markets have rarely seen for risk assets. Near-term path still hinges on macro volatility and positioning.
Last Words
Park’s thesis flips a long-held assumption: Bitcoin may not need rate cuts for its next advance. Whether a Bitcoin bull market without rate cuts materializes will depend on sustained demand that can overcome tighter financial conditions and on how investors reprice “risk-free” itself.
FAQs
Q : What does Park mean by BTC’s “endgame”?
A : He means Bitcoin appreciating even as interest rates rise, signaling a deeper structural shift in how markets price money, risk, and value.
Q : Has Bitcoin ever rallied during rate-hike cycles?
A : Yes, short-term rallies have occurred in the past, but Park emphasizes that a sustained bull market during rate hikes would be new and highly significant.
Q : Are traders pricing rate cuts in 2026?
A : Yes. Prediction markets currently assign the highest probability around 27% to three rate cuts in 2026.
Q : Is a Bitcoin bull market without rate cuts realistic?
A : According to Park, it’s possible if long-term structural demand outweighs liquidity headwinds. Strong BTC performance during hikes would support this thesis.
Q : Where was BTC priced in the source report?
A : Bitcoin was trading near $70,503, down 22.53% over the previous 30 days, based on CoinMarketCap data.
Q : What would this mean for the “risk-free rate”?
A : Park argues it would challenge the idea of a stable, universally accepted risk-free benchmark.
Q : Does this thesis require a US recession or QE?
A : No. Park suggests accommodative policies may not be the trigger for the next Bitcoin bull cycle.
Facts
Event
Analyst argues BTC could rally with rising rates, not cutsDate/Time
2026-02-07T00:00:00+05:00Entities
Jeff Park; The Pomp Podcast; US Federal Reserve; Polymarket; CoinMarketCapFigures
Polymarket odds: 27% for three 2026 cuts; BTC $70,503 at source publication; -22.53% 30-day change (CMC).Quotes
“Accommodative policies may… not be the catalyst to help us go into a bull market.” / “Holy grail… when Bitcoin goes up as interest rates go up.” Jeff Park.Sources
Cointelegraph via TradingView; The Pomp Podcast (Apple Podcasts); Polymarket; CoinMarketCap.