BTC $80K check-back risk rises as Nasdaq rebound stalls
Bitcoin’s three-week rebound has lost momentum below the $90,000 level as weakness in U.S. technology stocks and ongoing volatility in the Treasury market weigh on risk assets. These conditions have increased concerns among bulls about a possible pullback toward the $80,000 zone. Market sentiment has cooled as macro uncertainty limits upside strength, preventing BTC from sustaining higher levels despite earlier gains.
According to CoinDesk’s technical analysis, Bitcoin faced strong resistance above $94,000 and was rejected near that level. Prices retreated from around $93,000 on Friday, sliding into the high-$88,000 range over the weekend. After this pullback, BTC found temporary stability near $89,600, suggesting traders are cautiously waiting for clearer direction before the next major move.
Nasdaq, MOVE and why they matter for BTC
A nearly 1% Nasdaq slump late last week amid AI earnings jitters underscored fragile risk sentiment after the Fed’s December cut. Soft tech breadth and a one-week low in the Nasdaq reflect fading momentum, a backdrop that has historically spilled into crypto beta.
At the same time, the Treasury volatility gauge (ICE BofA MOVE index) has stopped falling and remains in the high-60s consistent with a market still sensitive to rate-path surprises. Persistent rates vol can choke risk assets’ appetite for leverage and duration, pressuring BTC on the margins. StreetStats+1
BTC’s candles.
On weekly charts, BTC printed a small-body red candle with a long upper wick, signaling rejection above ~$94K and waning upside follow-through typical of “sell-the-rips” regimes. That aligns with the recent stall just under $90K despite a softer dollar post-Fed.
Signal mix still includes the exact phrase: BTC $80K check-back risk
CoinDesk’s read flags Nasdaq’s stalled rebound and MOVE’s firming tone as yellow flags that keep the BTC $80K check-back risk in focus into year-end, especially if tech weakness broadens and crypto beta amplifies equity downside.
Context & Analysis
Crypto often exhibits higher beta to equity drawdowns in risk-off phases; if tech continues to lead lower, BTC could re-test the late-Nov cluster near $80K where on-chain metrics previously showed strong demand. Conversely, a decisive NDX rebound with cooling MOVE would temper downside odds.
Conclusion
Unless the Nasdaq shows renewed strength and volatility in the U.S. Treasury market eases, Bitcoin is likely to remain volatile with a downside bias. Under these conditions, price action may stay choppy, and the risk of a pullback toward the $80,000 level remains elevated. Weak macro signals continue to limit bullish confidence and upside momentum.
However, a sustained daily close above the $93,000–$94,000 resistance zone would significantly reduce the downside risk. Such a move would suggest improving market sentiment and stronger demand, potentially opening the door for a more stable recovery and renewed upside in Bitcoin’s price action.
FAQs
Q : Why did Bitcoin slip under $90K?
A : Risk appetite faded as the Nasdaq weakened and U.S. rates volatility stayed firm, muting post-Fed enthusiasm.
Q : Does Nasdaq weakness affect crypto?
A : Yes. Historically, Bitcoin shows a higher beta to equity drawdowns during risk-off periods, especially when tech stocks sell off.
Q : What is the MOVE index and why does it matter?
A : The MOVE index tracks implied volatility of U.S. Treasury rates. A higher MOVE often tightens financial conditions and weighs on risk assets like equities and crypto.
Q : Is an $80K retest the base case?
A : Not guaranteed. However, it becomes a key downside risk if risk-off accelerates and BTC loses the $88K–$85K support zone.
Q : What would negate the BTC $80K check-back risk?
A : A sustained BTC close back above $93K–$94K, alongside improving Nasdaq (NDX) performance and a softer MOVE index.
Q : Did the Fed cut rates?
A : Yes. The Fed delivered a December rate cut, after which markets reassessed tech earnings and interest-rate volatility.
Q : Where can I track live BTC prices?
A : You can follow live prices on CoinDesk’s BTC price page or directly on your crypto exchange.
Facts
Event
BTC rebound falters as Nasdaq stalls; downside risk toward $80K risesDate/Time
2025-12-15T17:00:00+05:00Entities
Bitcoin (BTC); Nasdaq 100 (NDX); ICE BofA MOVE Index; U.S. Federal ReserveFigures
BTC ~$89.6K–$89.7K; Nasdaq to one-week low (~-1% day); MOVE in high-60s rangeQuotes
“BTC retreated from $93K Friday to nearly $88K on Sunday before stabilizing around $89,600.” CoinDesk market updateSources
CoinDesk article (analysis) + price page; Reuters Nasdaq update; MacroMicro MOVE explainer. MacroMicro+3CoinDesk+3CoinDesk+3