Bitcoin Slips Below Key Support as Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Powell Speech
Bitcoin slipped below a key support level as the U.S. dollar strengthened ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech. The cryptocurrency dropped just over 1%, trading near $121,500 and falling under its 200-hour simple moving average — a signal that short-term momentum may be weakening.
Traders are currently balancing optimism from steady spot Bitcoin ETF inflows against a firmer dollar and limited market catalysts due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The lack of fresh economic data has led to muted trading conditions, leaving investors focused on Powell’s remarks for clues about future monetary policy and its impact on crypto liquidity.
Market Moves
Bitcoin reversed part of Wednesday’s bounce, trading near $121.5K and breaching the 200-hour SMA an intraday level many short-term traders watch. Ether and other large caps also softened, while the CoinDesk 20 eased modestly. A pick-up in the U.S. dollar added pressure to dollar-priced assets.
What’s driving the dollar and why it matters for BTC
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has pushed up toward 99, trimming risk appetite and typically weighing on crypto and commodities. At the same time, gold spiked above $4,000/oz for the first time before easing, underscoring defensive flows ahead of fresh Fed signals. Investing.com+2Reuters+2
Fed Watch: Minutes and Powell
Freshly released September FOMC minutes confirm the Committee lowered the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25%, with “most” participants judging further easing this year may be appropriate, though some urged caution given sticky inflation risks. With the government shutdown pausing several data releases, officials flagged uncertainty heading into the Oct. 28–29 meeting. Powell’s remarks at 12:30 GMT today could shape near-term rate expectations.
Flows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs extended their positive streak, taking in roughly $430m in net inflows yesterday, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. Persistent inflows have helped cushion downside but haven’t offset macro-driven dollar strength in today’s session.
Technical Focus
Bitcoin slips below key support: levels to watch
200-hour SMA
Now overhead resistance after today’s break.Near-term range
Recent lows around $121K vs. resistance into $123–124K.Momentum: intraday bias tilts cautious while DXY stays bid.
<section id=”howto”> <h3>How to track intraday Bitcoin support and catalysts</h3> <ol> <li id=”step1″><strong>Step 1:</strong> Add 50/200-hour SMAs to your BTCUSD chart to flag trend shifts.</li> <li id=”step2″><strong>Step 2:</strong> Set price alerts at the prior session high/low and the 200-hour SMA.</li> <li id=”step3″><strong>Step 3:</strong> Monitor DXY and gold for risk-on/off cues alongside BTC.</li> <li id=”step4″><strong>Step 4:</strong> Check ETF net flows (daily) for demand signals.</li> <li id=”step5″><strong>Step 5:</strong> Time macro events (e.g., Powell speeches, FOMC minutes) in your local TZ.</li> </ol> <p><em>Note: Process may vary by platform/provider. Confirm settings before acting.</em></p> </section>
Context & Analysis
The mix of a firmer dollar, record-high gold, and shutdown-thinned data flow leaves markets unusually headline-sensitive. Fed minutes point to a cautious easing bias but with clear disagreement over pace keeping Powell’s tone pivotal for near-term dollar and crypto direction.
Conclusion
The near-term direction of the crypto market depends largely on how Fed Chair Jerome Powell balances inflation control with growing employment risks. Investors are closely watching his tone for signs of either continued tightening or a shift toward caution.
A weaker dollar and sustained demand for Bitcoin ETFs could support a rebound in BTC prices. However, if Powell adopts a hawkish stance or if the U.S. data blackout from the government shutdown persists, risk assets including cryptocurrencies may remain under pressure as traders turn defensive amid uncertainty.
FAQs
Q : Why did Bitcoin fall today?
A : A stronger dollar and pre-speech caution ahead of Powell weighed on crypto; BTC also slipped below an intraday support level.
Q : What time is Powell speaking?
A : 12:30 GMT (8:30 a.m. ET) at the Community Bank Conference in Washington, D.C.
Q : Did ETFs still see inflows?
A : Yes. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in roughly $430 million yesterday, led by IBIT.
Q : What did the Fed minutes say?
A : They documented a 25 bps cut to 4.00%–4.25% and noted that most participants see scope for further easing this year, with differing views on pace.
Q : How does the shutdown affect markets?
A : It delays key data (e.g., jobs, inflation), making Fed guidance more uncertain and heightening sensitivity to speeches.
Q : What’s the CoinDesk 20 doing?
A : It edged lower alongside BTC and ETH during today’s pullback.
Q : Is gold’s surge relevant to crypto?
A : Yes both are non-yielding, dollar-priced assets; haven demand into gold can coincide with crypto weakness when the dollar firms.