Bitcoin returns above $110,500 on rate cut hopes; US-China risk still major: analysts
Bitcoin climbed back above $110,500, extending its rebound in line with broader crypto market gains. The move came as renewed optimism over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and steady ETF inflows boosted investor confidence. At around 1:45 a.m. EDT, BTC was trading near $110,544, showing resilience after recent volatility and signaling improved short-term momentum.
Ether also advanced, reclaiming the $4,000 mark as traders grew more comfortable with the market’s risk profile. Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, sentiment across digital assets appeared firmer. Analysts note that sustained demand from ETFs and easing yields could further support Bitcoin’s outlook in the near term, though key resistance levels above $111K remain critical for confirming a stronger bullish continuation.
Market Snapshot and Drivers
Prices & breadth
Bitcoin rose 3.16% in 24 hours to ~$110,544, with ETH +3.6% (~$4,036); BNB, XRP and SOL also advanced, indicating a broad-based bid.
Flows & macro tone
“The recent rebound in Bitcoin…has been driven by a combination of institutional inflows and improving macroeconomic conditions,” said Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets, citing renewed demand for spot crypto ETFs and dip-buying after last week’s sell-off.
Rates backdrop
Traders are assigning very high odds to a 25 bps Fed cut at the late-October meeting, easing yields and supporting risk assets.
Key Levels to Watch
Support
$107,000 (structural support; a break risks liquidations if macro shocks return).
Immediate resistance
$111,000 (first trigger for momentum extension).
Higher supply zone
$111,700–$115,500 (where sellers may defend unless a decisive breakout occurs).
“Kronos Research CIO Vincent Liu” highlighted $107K and $110K as near-term pivots, adding that sustained buying above $111K could open the way for another leg higher. Lucas also sees resistance into $111,700–$115,500, with a short squeeze possible on a clean break.
Macro & Geopolitical Risks
Rate path
Market-implied probabilities (CME FedWatch) lean heavily toward an October cut, with some desks also eyeing an earlier end to quantitative tightening.
U.S.–China tensions
Recent tariff rhetoric and a planned Trump–Xi meeting later this month present headline risk that could sway risk sentiment.
Trading Setup for “Bitcoin returns above $110,500”
Bias is constructive while BTC holds above $110K, but follow-through likely requires acceptance above $111K.
Failure to hold $110K puts focus back on $107K liquidity pockets.
Breakout map around $111K for “Bitcoin returns above $110,500”
Break and hold > $111K
Watch for momentum continuation and potential squeeze toward $113K–$115.5K.
Rejection at $111K
Expect chop back to $109K–$110K; loss of $110K raises risk of a swift move to $107K.
Context & Analysis
Rate-sensitive assets rallied as cut odds rose and yields eased, but crypto’s beta to geopolitics remains high. With resistance stacked from $111K upward, catalysts such as confirmed policy shifts or a de-escalation in U.S.–China tensions may be needed for a durable trend.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recovery above $110,500 has strengthened short-term momentum, signaling renewed buyer interest after recent consolidation. Market optimism is supported by improving sentiment around potential Fed rate cuts and steady ETF inflows, which continue to attract institutional attention.
However, analysts caution that a sustained break above the $111K–$115.5K zone is needed to confirm a fresh bullish leg. Until that happens, traders are watching key supports at $110K and $107K as critical levels. Any weakness in macro data or renewed U.S.–China tariff tensions could trigger volatility and test these supports in the coming sessions.
FAQs
Q : Why did Bitcoin bounce today?
A : Improved odds of an October Fed rate cut eased yields, while ETF inflows supported risk appetite.
Q : What is the key resistance now?
A : Analysts flag $111,000 initially, then $111,700–$115,500.
Q : What happens if BTC loses $110K?
A : Focus shifts to $107K support where liquidations could accelerate if macro shocks hit.
Q : How do U.S.–China tariffs affect crypto?
A : Escalating tariffs can dampen risk sentiment and USD liquidity, adding volatility to BTC.
Q : Is a short squeeze possible above $111K?
A : Yes several desks note a potential squeeze if price accepts above $111K with rising spot demand.
Q : Does ‘Bitcoin returns above $110,500’ mean a new bull leg?
A : Not by itself; confirmation likely requires acceptance above the $111K–$115.5K zone.
Q : What indicators should traders watch this week?
A : FedWatch probabilities, U.S. inflation/manufacturing data, ETF flows, and tariff headlines.
Facts
Event
Bitcoin rebounds above $110,500 amid rate-cut bets; resistance near $111K.Date/Time
2025-10-20T10:45:00+05:00Entities
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), BTC Markets (Rachael Lucas), Kronos Research (Vincent Liu), U.S. Federal Reserve, CME Group, U.S.–China (tariffs), President Donald Trump, President Xi Jinping.Figures
BTC ~$110,544 (+3.16% 24h); ETH ~$4,036; key levels: $107K support, $111K resistance, $111.7K–$115.5K resistance band; Fed cut odds ~high (market-implied).Quotes
“The recent rebound in Bitcoin…has been driven by a combination of institutional inflows and improving macroeconomic conditions.” — Rachael Lucas, BTC Markets
“Sustained buying pressure above $111K could extend momentum and open the door for another leg higher.” Vincent Liu, Kronos Research
Sources:
CME FedWatch Tool; Reuters tariff coverage; live BTC pricing references.