Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Bear Market Deepens as Firm Sees 30% More Downside

Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Bear Market Deepens as Firm Sees 30% More Downside

Bitcoin four-year cycle bear market concerns are back in focus after crypto investment firm ZX Squared Capital said the largest digital asset could fall another 30% this year. The warning comes after bitcoin retreated sharply from its October 2025 record high and as analysts debate whether post-halving history is repeating itself.

Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Bear Market Outlook From ZX Squared Capital

ZX Squared Capital founder CK Zheng said bitcoin is “convincingly in deep bear market territory” and told CoinDesk he expects a further 30% decline during 2026. His view is rooted in the recurring four-year cycle that many crypto traders associate with halving events, where reduced new supply is followed by a rally, then a sharp correction.

According to CoinDesk’s report, Zheng argues the pattern is proving difficult to break because retail investor psychology remains highly predictable. In his view, investors buy into hype during rallies and sell into fear during downturns, reinforcing a cycle that keeps bitcoin trading more like a speculative asset than a classic safe haven such as gold.

Why the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Bear Market Thesis Matters

The latest halving took place on April 20, 2024, cutting the block reward to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC. Historical commentary around prior cycles has often pointed to price peaks 12 to 18 months after a halving, followed by a bear phase. CoinDesk linked the October 2025 top to that pattern, and Reuters separately reported bitcoin reached a fresh all-time high above $125,000 on October 5, 2025.

As of March 7, 2026, the finance feed showed bitcoin near $67,921, down substantially from that peak. That decline does not confirm the four-year-cycle thesis on its own, but it does show the size of the retracement now facing the market.

What Could Push Bitcoin Lower

Zheng’s bearish case is not only about chart history. He also said institutional adoption remains limited relative to the size of the broader crypto market, and that some digital-asset treasury companies could be forced sellers if debt-servicing needs rise during a prolonged downturn. That, he argued, could create a negative feedback loop.

This is a market-structure argument rather than a forecast based on one catalyst. In effect, Zheng is saying that even with spot bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buying, those pools of demand may not yet be large enough to fully offset panic-driven selling in a deep drawdown. CoinDesk attributed that view directly to Zheng.

Context and Analysis

The bearish call is notable because it frames bitcoin not as digital gold but as a risk-sensitive, psychology-driven asset whose large drawdowns remain cyclical. That is still a debated view in crypto markets, but the underlying facts are clear: the April 2024 halving happened, bitcoin later set a record high in October 2025, and the asset was trading near $68,000 on March 7, 2026.

What remains less certain is the size of any next leg lower. Zheng’s 30% decline call is an outlook, not a confirmed event. Markets can diverge from historical patterns, especially if macro conditions, regulation, ETF demand, or institutional balance-sheet behavior change. That uncertainty is why the forecast should be presented as an analyst view rather than a settled market consensus.

To Sum Up

ZX Squared Capital’s warning adds to the bearish side of the crypto debate at a time when bitcoin remains far below its October 2025 high. The core argument is that the four-year cycle still dominates price behavior and that forced selling could intensify the downturn. What happens next will depend on whether fresh institutional demand absorbs supply or whether the market follows the same post-halving path seen in earlier cycles.

FAQs

Q1 : Why does ZX Squared Capital think bitcoin could fall another 30%?

A : The firm says bitcoin has entered a deep bear phase and that the historical post-halving cycle, combined with investor psychology and possible forced selling, could drive another leg lower.

Q2 : What is the bitcoin four-year cycle bear market thesis?

A : It is the view that bitcoin tends to rally after a halving, peak around a year to a year and a half later, and then enter a prolonged correction before the next cycle begins.

Q3 : When was the latest bitcoin halving?

A : The most recent halving occurred on April 20, 2024, when the block reward fell to 3.125 BTC.

Q4 : How far has bitcoin fallen from its record high?

A : Reuters reported bitcoin hit an all-time high above $125,000 on October 5, 2025. The finance feed showed it at about $67,921 on March 7, 2026.

Q5 : Is bitcoin behaving like gold in this downturn?

A : Not according to Zheng, who argues bitcoin still trades more like a speculative asset than a traditional safe haven.

Q6 : Could institutional demand stop the decline?

A : Possibly, but Zheng says institutional adoption is still limited in scope relative to the full crypto market, so it may not fully offset selling pressure in a deep downturn.

Facts

• Event
  ZX Squared Capital says bitcoin is in a deep bear market and may fall another 30% in 2026.

• Date/Time
  2026-03-07T15:55:35+05:00 for current time reference; article published March 7, 2026.

• Entities
  Bitcoin (BTC); ZX Squared Capital; CK Zheng; CoinDesk; Reuters.

• Figures
  BTC price about $67,921 on March 7, 2026; all-time high above $125,000 on October 5, 2025; current block reward 3.125 BTC.

• Quotes
  “Bitcoin’s price is convincingly in deep bear market territory now.” — CK Zheng, founder of ZX Squared Capital, as quoted by CoinDesk.

• Sources
  CoinDesk report, Reuters market report, CoinGecko halving page, The Block halving report.