Bitcoin Faces Heavy Selling Pressure Despite Seasonal Bullish Expectations
Bitcoin’s strong autumn rally appears to be losing steam as long-term holders ramp up profit-taking. According to Glassnode, the supply held by these investors has dropped by roughly 300,000 BTC since June, with selling pressure accelerating through October. This suggests many early holders are locking in gains after months of appreciation.
Meanwhile, on-chain data shows a clear divergence in behavior between investor groups. Whales continue to distribute their holdings, while smaller retail-sized wallets are still accumulating. Despite this tug-of-war, Bitcoin’s price has stabilized around the $110,000 level, reflecting a market caught between optimism and caution amid mixed macroeconomic signals and shifting crypto-specific dynamics.
Market Snapshot & On-Chain Signals
LTH distribution
Glassnode’s LTH cohort (155+ day holders) has reduced holdings by ~300,000 BTC since late June; about 100,000 BTC were reportedly sold in recent days as profit-taking intensified.Whales vs. smaller cohorts
Entities holding >10,000 BTC are the primary distributors; 1,000–10,000 BTC cohorts are neutral, and sub-1,000 BTC cohorts are net accumulators.Price context
BTC has traded around $110K–$112K this week after dipping near $105K on Oct. 10, tracking risk-off moves across assets.
LTH Behavior and the Cycle Narrative
Analysts note that LTHs are largely in profit and increasingly realizing gains despite the historical Q4 tailwind and post-halving cycle lore. This challenges the four-year-cycle narrative that typically presumes outsized performance 12–18 months after halving.
Signals within bitcoin long-term holders selling
Profit realization
The LTH supply drawdown (~300,000 BTC since June) points to a broad de-risking and profit-realization phase.Distribution quality
Heavy net selling from >10,000 BTC entities can weigh on spot order books even as smaller addresses accumulate, potentially flattening upside follow-through.
Liquidity, Volumes, and Derivatives
Volumes cooled in September
Spot volumes fell 9.43% M/M to $2.14T; derivatives volumes slid 20.1% to $5.98T, reducing derivatives’ market share to 73.7%. Open interest rose 3.2% to $204B and peaked at $230B intramonth.Implication
Softer volumes alongside elevated OI can amplify moves as positioning gets one-sided, especially if whale distribution persists.
Trading near $110K amid bitcoin long-term holders selling
BTC hovered near $110K–$112K mid-week, with news-driven volatility (e.g., trade tensions) contributing to risk aversion. Technicians are watching the $107K–$110K zone; a sustained break could test lower supports, while a reclaim of recent moving averages might reset momentum. Reuters+2The Times of India+2
Context & Analysis
Elevated whale distribution amid strong OI and cooling volumes can produce choppy ranges where rallies fade quickly. If LTH supply stabilizes, smaller-cohort accumulation may regain influence; if not, seasonal patterns alone may be insufficient to propel fresh highs.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains limited as whales continue to offload and long-term holder supply keeps declining. This steady distribution suggests the market is still consolidating gains rather than preparing for a fresh breakout. Until selling pressure from large investors eases, price action is likely to stay confined near key support zones.
A clear shift in momentum would require renewed demand or a strong external catalyst. Factors such as improving macro sentiment, institutional inflows, or a positive regulatory development could reignite Bitcoin’s Q4 bullish trend. For now, traders appear cautious, waiting for confirmation before positioning for the next move.
FAQs
Q : What does “long-term holder” mean in Bitcoin?
A : An address holding BTC for ≥155 days, per common on-chain definitions.
Q : Are whales driving the current downturn?
A : Whales (>10,000 BTC) are net distributors, which can pressure price when liquidity is thin.
Q : Is Q4 usually bullish for BTC?
A : Historically yes, but current conditions show mixed results as profit-taking rises and macro risks weigh.
Q : How significant is the ~300,000 BTC LTH reduction?
A : It’s a notable multi-month drawdown that signals broad profit realization by mature holders.
Q : Where is BTC trading now?
A : Recent prints cluster around $110K–$112K after an Oct. 10 dip near $105K.
Q : Does open interest at records mean higher prices?
A : Not necessarily; high OI with softer volumes can increase fragility to sharp moves.
Q : Does this article address “bitcoin long-term holders selling”?
A : Yes, definitions, magnitudes (~300,000 BTC), and cohort behavior are detailed above.
Facts
Event
Intensified LTH profit-taking and whale distribution as BTC trades near $110KDate/Time
2025-10-16T14:24:00+05:00Entities
Bitcoin (BTC); Glassnode; long-term holders (≥155 days); whale cohorts (>10,000 BTC)Figures
~300,000 BTC LTH drawdown since June; OI up to $204B (peak $230B intramonth); BTC ~$110K–$112K recent range (USD) CoinDesk+2data.coindesk.com+2Quotes
(No direct quotes provided in sources; see Clarifications Needed.)Sources
CoinDesk “Bitcoin Faces Heavy Selling Pressure…” (coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/16/bitcoin-faces-heavy-selling-pressure-despite-seasonal-bullish-expectations); CCData “Exchange Review September 2025” (data.coindesk.com/reports/exchange-review-september-2025)