Dutch plan to tax unrealized gains draws investor backlash, crypto alarm

Dutch plan to tax unrealized gains draws investor backlash, crypto alarm

The Netherlands is moving toward an overhaul of its wealth tax, with lawmakers backing a Box 3 “actual return” approach that would levy annual taxes on unrealized and realized investment gains across assets such as equities, bonds and cryptocurrencies.

Supporters argue the change is needed after court rulings against fictitious-return methods and to avoid further budget gaps; critics warn the Netherlands unrealized gains tax plan could trigger capital flight.

What the Netherlands unrealized gains tax would change

Under the proposed Wet werkelijk rendement (Box 3), annual tax would apply to the measured change in asset value including paper gains rather than a deemed return. The transition targets 2028 and is framed as a response to prior court decisions against the old forfaitaire (assumed) returns. Real estate would generally be taxed on realized gains with deductible costs, though private use of second homes would face an additional levy.

Who would pay the Netherlands unrealized gains tax

Individuals with Box 3 assets such as listed shares, bonds, funds and crypto—would be affected. The government and lawmakers have discussed that taxing only realized returns would be preferable long-term but is not considered feasible before 2028, prompting this interim model.

Parliamentary status and timeline

Parliamentary materials and agendas indicate continued debate and follow-up sessions on the Box 3 bill, with a target to implement from 2028. A working majority appears supportive, though details and amendments remain under discussion.

Parties and positions

While several parties have signaled support for moving ahead to prevent further revenue loss, opposition exists. The Party for Freedom (PVV), for example, has criticized taxing unrealized gains and favors a realized-gains approach. Stakeholders across finance and investor groups have also raised concerns about complexity, liquidity and competitiveness.

Context & Analysis

Taxing annual value increases aims to align liability with “actual return,” but it creates cash-flow risk in volatile markets and may complicate administration. Real estate’s more favorable treatment (deductible costs; realization basis) reduces valuation frictions compared with mark-to-market assets. Whether the model curbs inequality without spurring outflows will hinge on final rates, loss-offset rules and execution capacity.

Concluding Remarks

The Box 3 tax overhaul is moving forward, but it has not yet become law. With a proposed implementation target of 2028, several elements of the reform remain open to revision. Lawmakers and expert committees are still reviewing the bill, and both parliamentary chambers may introduce changes as the legislative process continues. This means the final structure could look different from current proposals.

Investors should stay alert to official updates and policy guidance as details evolve. Preparation is important, especially if the new system introduces taxation on annual paper gains in addition to the traditional realization-based treatment for property and other assets. Monitoring developments early can help investors adjust their strategies and manage potential tax impacts effectively.

FAQs

Q : What is the Netherlands unrealized gains tax?

A : A proposed Box 3 system that would tax annual changes in asset value, including paper gains, with a target launch in 2028.

Q : Which assets are affected?

A : Listed shares, bonds, funds, and crypto would fall under the annual valuation approach, while most real estate would shift to realization-based taxation with allowable cost deductions.

Q : When would it start?

A : The government is targeting January 1, 2028, subject to final parliamentary approval.

Q : Why change Box 3 now?

A : Courts rejected the taxation of fictitious returns, prompting lawmakers to align taxes with actual returns and avoid further budget gaps.

Q : Who opposes the plan?

A : Some political parties, including PVV, oppose taxing paper gains and prefer a realized-gains system.

Q : Will second homes be treated differently?

A : Yes. They would generally be taxed on realization with deductible costs, plus an additional levy for personal use.

Q : How should investors prepare?

A : Investors should model potential annual valuation impacts, plan liquidity for possible tax bills, and closely monitor official guidance as the proposal evolves.

Facts

• Event
  Parliament advances Box 3 reform to tax unrealized and realized gains annually

• Date/Time
  2026-01-24T12:00:00+01:00

• Entities
  Netherlands (Tweede Kamer); Ministry of Finance; Eugène Heijnen (Tax Affairs)

• Figures
  ~€2.3bn/year estimated revenue impact from delays; real estate taxed on realization with cost deductions; extra levy for personal use of second homes.

• Quotes
  “Heffing over werkelijk rendement via een aanwasbenadering” (tax on actual return via an accrual approach). Summary of legislative framing.

• Sources
  NL Times (https://nltimes.nl/2026/01/20/netherlands-likely-start-taxing-capital-gains-annually-2028); Rijksoverheid brief (https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/documenten/kamerstukken/2026/01/22/wgo-wet-werkelijk-rendement-box-3-resterende-vragen-en-appreciaties)