Analysts see relief bounce in Bitcoin as leverage resets

Analysts see relief bounce in Bitcoin as leverage resets

Bitcoin posted a strong mid-week rebound as analysts suggested the crypto market is finally stabilizing after a month of intense volatility. According to market observers, recent price action reflects the unwinding of excessive leverage and a cooling-off period following aggressive selling. This shift has encouraged some optimism that the worst of the shakeout may be over, allowing Bitcoin to regain short-term momentum.

In a fresh report, Bitfinex highlighted signs of “extreme deleveraging” and noted that many short-term holders have already capitulated, reducing immediate selling pressure. The firm described current market behavior as “seller exhaustion,” a condition that often precedes relief rallies. Bitfinex believes these factors could support a near-term bounce, followed by a phase of consolidation as the market searches for stronger directional cues.

Market snapshot and recent volatility

Bitcoin rallied roughly 8% on Wednesday, briefly approaching $94,000, after sliding through November amid risk-off sentiment. The rebound follows a steep drawdown that accelerated after a major leverage event in early October and culminated in a local low near $82,000 on Nov. 21. Reuters and Bloomberg have tracked the sequence: a new all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, a subsequent deleveraging wave around Oct. 10, and a sharp November drop to the high-$80,000s.

Leaner leverage base and implications

Bitfinex analysts argue the market is running on a “leaner leverage base,” lowering the odds of another liquidation-driven cascade in the immediate term. Such resets can reduce systemic fragility and allow prices to consolidate more constructively, though liquidity and macro headlines remain swing factors. Their weekly Alpha research has emphasized on-chain and derivative metrics to assess risk positioning. bitfinex.com

Seasonality vs. this year’s pattern

Since 2013, December has delivered modest average returns (about 4–5%), while November has been historically strong often the best month. This year diverged: November saw double-digit declines, highlighting that averages can be skewed by outlier years (notably 2013). CoinGlass data show November’s average is ~41% but heavily influenced by early-cycle surges.

Sentiment and cycle debate

The downturn late in the year has revived debate over the four-year cycle. Analysts like PlanC and Quinten Francois contend that liquidity, macro policy, and market structure now drive price more than halving cycles alone; Francois wrote, “Bitcoin is closer to the bottom than to the top.

Forecasts into year-end

Amid volatility, Tom Lee has recently suggested Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000 before the end of the year, moderating earlier, more aggressive targets. Reports from crypto outlets have echoed that stance while noting uncertainty after November’s slide.

Context & Analysis

 The reset from October’s leverage flush and November’s drawdown has historically preceded multi-week stabilization phases. However, macro catalysts (rates, liquidity, ETF flows) and market structure (derivatives positioning) can quickly overwhelm technical setups. December’s historically modest returns argue for tempered expectations even as positioning looks cleaner.

Bottom Lines

Signals of deleveraging and fading selling pressure are strengthening expectations for a short-term relief rebound in the crypto market. These conditions suggest that recent stress may be easing, giving Bitcoin room to stabilize and potentially form a consolidation base after weeks of volatility.

However, the broader outlook remains sensitive to macro uncertainty and shifting liquidity conditions. Any sustained upside will depend on whether renewed spot buying and consistent ETF inflows can counter the remaining fragility left by the autumn downturn. Without stronger demand, market recovery may remain limited and vulnerable to renewed pressure.

FAQs

Q : What do analysts mean by a “relief bounce”?

A : A short-term rebound after heavy selling and deleveraging, often within a broader consolidation.

Q : Is leverage still a risk for Bitcoin now?

A : Yes. It’s lower than in early October, but sudden moves can still trigger liquidations.

Q : Did Bitcoin hit a new all-time high this year?

A : Yes. It set an ATH above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025.

Q : How did Bitcoin perform in November 2025?

A : It fell sharply; Reuters reported a drop to the mid-$80,000s on Dec. 1 after a weak November.

Q : Is the four-year cycle still relevant?

A : Views are split. Some analysts argue liquidity and macro drivers matter more this cycle.

Q : Can Bitcoin reclaim $100,000 this year?

A : Tom Lee recently said he’s confident BTC could reclaim $100,000 before year-end, but outcomes remain uncertain.

Q : Where can I follow a Bitcoin relief bounce analysis in real time?

A : Monitor funding rates, open interest, liquidations, and spot-vs-perp volumes from reputable data providers.

Facts

• Event
  Analysts flag stabilization after deleveraging; potential relief bounce in Bitcoin

• Date/Time
  2025-12-04T00:00:00+05:00

• Entities
  Bitcoin (BTC); Bitfinex Alpha (research); CoinGlass (market data); Tom Lee; Quinten Francois

• Figures
  ATH $125,245 (Oct. 5); local low ~ $80.7k–$82k (Nov. 21); November decline double-digit %; Oct. 10 leverage wipe ~$19bn

• Quotes
  “The combination of extreme deleveraging, capitulation among short-term holders, and early signs of seller exhaustion has created the conditions for a stabilisation phase and a relief bounce.” Bitfinex analysts.

• Sources
  Reuters (ATH) Reuters; Reuters (Dec. 1 decline) Reuters; Bloomberg (Oct. deleveraging) Bloomberg; CoinGlass (seasonality) coinglass