Arthur Hayes warns Monad could crash 99%, calls it high-risk ‘VC coin’
Arthur Hayes has issued a stark warning that Monad could face a severe correction, potentially dropping as much as 99%. He argues that the project’s extremely high fully diluted valuation (FDV), combined with its limited circulating supply, creates a risky setup for retail investors. According to Hayes, once insider and early-investor tokens begin unlocking, the sudden increase in supply could trigger heavy selling pressure and steep drawdowns for late buyers.
His comments came during an interview segment shared by Altcoin Daily, where he also emphasized his broader bullish stance on the crypto market. Hayes believes global liquidity is expanding and will continue fueling long-term growth across digital assets. However, he maintains that investors must remain cautious with tokens structured around high FDVs and aggressive unlock schedules.
Why Arthur Hayes warns Monad could crash 99%
Hayes described MON as “another high-FDV, low-float VC coin,” contending that such structures often inflate early prices and then unwind during unlocks, leaving latecomers vulnerable. He said many new L1s ultimately fail to gain real-world traction, predicting only a small cohort will retain relevance TradingView+1
Arthur Hayes warns Monad could crash 99%
Hayes’ caution followed heightened volatility around MON after mainnet launch and an airdrop. Separate coverage this week noted Hayes briefly flipped from optimism to an explicit exit, underscoring the risks of low-float trading dynamics for retail participants.
Monad’s launch and funding backdrop
Monad Labs raised $225 million in April 2024 in a round led by Paradigm to build an EVM compatible L1 focused on performance. The network has since launched its mainnet, accompanied by a MON token airdrop and token sale details publicized by CMC Academy.
Macro view: liquidity, not halvings
Hayes argued that the next crypto leg up will be driven primarily by renewed monetary expansion rather than Bitcoin’s four-year halving rhythm framing BTC as an early “smoke alarm” for tightening or loosening global liquidity.
Context & Analysis
High-FDV launches can catalyze sharp initial pumps, but history shows that sustained value tends to track real usage and credible decentralization. Monad’s funding and performance claims have drawn interest, yet Hayes’ critique highlights the importance of supply dynamics and unlock transparency for price discovery especially when early ownership is concentrated.
Conclusion
Hayes’ remarks highlight the structural risks facing Monad, even as he stays broadly bullish on the crypto market. He points to factors such as high fully diluted valuation and limited circulating supply, which could leave retail investors vulnerable when insider tokens unlock in the coming months.
The project’s future will likely depend on tangible progress, including developer adoption and real-world use cases. These factors will determine whether Monad can establish itself as a lasting Layer 1 blockchain or fade away as another high-FDV experiment with limited sustainability in the long run.
FAQs
Q : What did Arthur Hayes say about Monad?
A : He warned MON could fall as much as 99% due to a high-FDV, low-float structure that often leads to post-unlock sell-offs.
Q : When did Monad launch and what was offered?
A : Monad’s mainnet went live with a MON airdrop and token sale details publicized by CMC Academy.
Q : Why do high-FDV tokens carry risk?
A : Large gaps between FDV and circulating supply can create selling pressure when locked tokens vest, pressuring price if demand lags.
Q : Which L1s does Hayes expect to endure?
A: He cited Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Zcash as likely long-term survivors.
Q : Is Hayes bullish on crypto overall?
A : Yes. He expects renewed money printing/liquidity to drive the next upcycle.
Q : Did Arthur Hayes reverse on MON after launch?
A : Coverage shows he briefly flipped from bullish to calling for “send it to zero,” highlighting volatility risks.
Q : Does this mean Monad will fail?
A : Not necessarily. Outcomes hinge on user adoption, developer activity, and how unlocks/liquidity are managed.
Facts
Event
Hayes cautions MON could suffer a severe sell-off; calls it a high-FDV, low-float “VC coin.”Date/Time
2025-11-29T00:00:00+05:00Entities
Arthur Hayes (BitMEX co-founder); Monad Labs (EVM-compatible L1); Paradigm (lead investor)Figures
$225 million raise (April 2024); MON launch + airdrop (Nov 2025) CoinDesk+1Quotes
“Send this dogshit to ZERO!” Arthur Hayes, on X (context: post-launch flip) Yahoo FinanceSources
CoinDesk (Paradigm round) https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/04/09/blockchain-developer-monad-labs-raises-225m-led-by-paradigm/ ; CMC Academy (launch/airdrop) — https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/monad-announces-nov-24-launch-with-airdrop-for-225k-users