Exactly One Year After Strategy’s All Time High, the Bitcoin-Linked Slide Intensifies
Strategy stock down 68% after all-time high has become the headline move across crypto-exposed equities. One year after touching an all-time high near $543, Strategy (MSTR) is about 68% lower, coinciding with bitcoin’s retreat from early October’s record near $126,000 to the low-$80,000s on Friday, Nov. 21.
The drawdown places MSTR among its worst declines since adopting a bitcoin treasury strategy in 2020, as technical support levels give way and the stock’s premium to its underlying holdings continues to narrow.
What changed in the last year
Bitcoin’s surge to a fresh peak in early October faded into a rapid selloff, with intraday prints in the $81K–$83K area on major venues on Nov. 21. That weakness has fed through to crypto-proxy equities such as Strategy, which broke below key trendlines and prior support. Market commentary also points to macro cross-winds shifting Fed-cut odds and thinning year-end liquidity amplifying volatility. CoinDesk+2CoinDesk+2
Index risk enters the frame
A new overhang has emerged: JPMorgan says Strategy could be removed from major equity benchmarks (e.g., MSCI USA, potentially the Nasdaq 100), a step that could force mechanical selling by index-tracking funds. The bank estimates roughly $2.8B in passive outflows tied to MSCI alone, with additional risk if other providers follow suit.
Premium, positioning, and the bitcoin link
Strategy historically traded at a material premium to the value of its bitcoin holdings, but recent coverage pegs that multiple close to ~1.2×, reflecting waning enthusiasm and tighter risk budgets. The company’s disclosed average BTC purchase price around $74,430 per coin remains a closely watched reference for equity investors gauging NAV sensitivity.
Strategy stock down 68% after all-time high: technical context
Past drawdowns of 50–80% have tracked bitcoin’s cyclical swings (e.g., 2021–2022), underscoring MSTR’s leveraged exposure to BTC direction. With bitcoin’s structure weakening into year-end and downside hedging elevated, equity volatility may persist until crypto flows stabilize.
Context & Analysis
Index-eligibility uncertainty can matter as much as bitcoin’s path in the short run. If MSCI exclusion materializes, passive outflows could compress the premium further regardless of BTC stabilization. Conversely, relief on index status or a BTC rebound toward six figures could quickly restore risk appetite for the proxy trade.
Conclusion
The strategy’s one-year performance highlights how closely the equity moves with Bitcoin and reacts to rule changes by index providers. This tight correlation underscores the importance of monitoring broader market trends, as shifts in BTC can directly influence equity behavior.
Heading into year-end, investors should keep an eye on Bitcoin’s trend, potential MSCI or Nasdaq index decisions, and the mNAV premium, which currently hovers around 1.2×. These factors can provide early signals on whether selling pressure will ease or intensify, helping guide timely decisions in a volatile market environment.
FAQs
Q : Why is Strategy down so much in a year?
A : Mainly because bitcoin fell from ~$126K in early October to the low-$80Ks and due to new index-exclusion risks that could force passive outflows.
Q : What is Strategy’s average bitcoin purchase price?
A : Around $74,430 per BTC based on recent disclosures.
Q : Could Strategy be removed from MSCI or Nasdaq indices?
A : JPMorgan says MSCI removal is possible and could trigger roughly $2.8B in passive outflows, with more if others follow.
Q : What is Strategy’s mNAV premium now?
A : Recent coverage places it near ~1.2×, down from earlier highs.
Q : How does bitcoin move impact MSTR?
A : MSTR is effectively a leveraged proxy for bitcoin; big BTC drops have historically coincided with 50–80% MSTR drawdowns.
Q : Where can I track live BTC prices?
A : Reputable trackers like CoinDesk’s price page and exchange dashboards provide near-real-time quotes.
Q : Is Strategy stock down 68% after all-time high today?
A : Yes, the one-year change is about –68%, aligning with today’s market context.
Facts
Event
Strategy’s bitcoin-linked stock slide deepens one year after its all-time highDate/Time
2025-11-21T15:00:00+05:00Entities
Strategy (MSTR); MSCI Inc. (MSCI); Nasdaq 100; Bitcoin (BTC)Figures:
68% vs. peak (~$543); BTC ~$81K–$83K intraday; potential $2.8B MSCI-linked outflows; mNAV ≈ 1.2×; average BTC cost ≈ $74,430Quotes
“Removal from MSCI alone could drive roughly $2.8 billion in passive outflows …” JPMorgan analysts (as reported)Sources
CoinDesk (slide & price) + URL; CoinDesk/JPMorgan note + URL; Barron’s (mNAV) + URL