Is Bitcoin Headed for a Crash Below $100K? ‘Grand Daddy’ Volume Indicator Hits Lowest Since April

Is Bitcoin Headed for a Crash Below $100K? ‘Grand Daddy’ Volume Indicator Hits Lowest Since April

Bitcoin has maintained its position above the $100,000 mark for several months, signaling strong market resilience. However, recent trading data suggests that this stability may be weakening. Analysts at CoinDesk note that the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator has fallen to its lowest level since April, hinting at declining buying pressure despite steady prices.

This drop in OBV often signals that traders are quietly taking profits or exiting positions, raising concerns about a potential downside move. If Bitcoin fails to hold key support zones, analysts warn it could trigger a sharper correction below six figures. While sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, the latest volume trends suggest that momentum is fading, and the market may be approaching a decisive turning point.

What’s new: OBV flags weakening demand

OBV aggregates volume by adding it on up days and subtracting it on down days, helping confirm or warn against price trends. When OBV breaks support while price is still rangebound, technicians often treat it as a bearish tell. In BTC’s case, OBV has undercut its recent range to April-like lows even as spot holds above $100k suggesting waning buy pressure. TradingView+1

Technical signals for bitcoin crash below $100k

OBV breakdown
Lowest since April 24 (when BTC traded near $94k), indicating distribution.

Momentum
Weekly MACD histogram printing deeper bars below zero, implying strengthening downside momentum.

Trend marker
BTC trades below its 50-day SMA, a short-term bearish configuration.

Key levels to watch

** ~$107,300 support:** Intraday lows from late August that launched the last bounce. A clean break would likely embolden sellers.

** ~$99,225 (June 22 low):** A loss of six figures could open a path toward this prior pivot.

Context
Separate market commentary from Standard Chartered also anticipates a temporary slide sub-$100k before the next leg higher.

How the indicator works

OBV is a cumulative volume line created by Joseph Granville and widely used to gauge buying/selling pressure. It adds volume on up closes and subtracts on down closes. Traders often seek confirmation when OBV trends with price and caution when it diverges or breaks its own support/resistance.

Context & Analysis

 An OBV breakdown doesn’t guarantee a sell-off, but it often precedes range resolutions. With BTC below its 50-day SMA and weekly momentum softening, failure to defend ~$107k raises the odds of a test of five-digits. Still, some strategists frame a sub-$100k dip as a shakeout within a longer-term uptrend. Risk management position sizing and predefined invalidation levels remains critical.

Conclusion

Until Bitcoin’s OBV indicator recovers its previous range or the price moves back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), downside pressure is likely to continue. Analysts caution that momentum remains fragile, and traders should stay alert for signs of further weakness in market structure.

The key level to watch is around $107,000. A breakdown below this point could open the door for a deeper pullback toward $100,000, with the June low near $99,225 as the next major support. Unless volume strength returns or technicals improve, Bitcoin’s uptrend remains at risk of a sharper correction.

FAQs

1. Is a bitcoin crash below $100k guaranteed by the OBV signal?
   No. OBV is an early warning, not a certainty; it should be paired with price action and other indicators.

2. What does OBV measure?
   Cumulative buying/selling pressure by adding volume on up days and subtracting it on down days.

3. Which levels matter now?
   ~$107,300 support first; below that, watch ~$100,000 and ~$99,225 (June 22 low).

4. Why can volume lead price?
   Historic use of OBV posits that shifts in volume often precede price breakouts or breakdowns.

5. Could a dip below $100k be brief?
   Some analysts expect any sub-$100k move to be temporary within a larger uptrend.

6. How should traders respond to conflicting signals?
   Use confluence: blend OBV with moving averages/MACD and define risk limits before entry.

7. Is OBV useful on all timeframes?
   Yes, but reliability varies; higher timeframes often reduce noise.

Facts

• Event:
  OBV drops to lowest since April, warning of potential BTC downside

• Date/Time
  2025-10-23T12:47:00+05:00

• Entities:
  Bitcoin (BTC); On-Balance Volume (OBV); CoinDesk; TradingView

• Figures
  Key supports ~$107,300; ~$99,225 (June 22 low) (USD)

• Quotes
  “When prices are in a trading range and the OBV breaks its own support or resistance, the break often indicates the direction… of the price breakout.”  summary of OBV usage per TradingView help/Granville concept. TradingView

• Sources
  CoinDesk analysis (Godbole) + URL; TradingView OBV help + URL