Bitcoin Stays Below $112K After Tough Jobs Report and Fed Cut Bets. What Next?
The macro backdrop just turned more dovish, but crypto markets remain unimpressed. Bitcoin is holding below $112K even after the weak U.S. jobs report sparked renewed rate-cut expectations. Instead of following the broader risk-asset bounce, BTC is signaling hesitation, suggesting traders remain cautious about leaning into the “euphoria” narrative. This lack of momentum keeps its technical setup vulnerable, with short-term support levels still under pressure.
The softer hiring data did shift Fed expectations, with markets pricing in deeper cuts and lower yields across Treasuries. Yet those cross-currents haven’t translated into sustainable crypto demand. Investors are watching whether liquidity conditions improve or if macro optimism fades. The next leg for Bitcoin may hinge less on Fed rhetoric and more on whether sidelined capital feels confident enough to re-enter risk.
Why the jobs shock didn’t lift prices
The August nonfarm payrolls added 22,000 jobs, far shy of forecasts, with earlier months revised down (including a net loss in June).
Rate-cut odds surged for September, and the market is toying with a bigger move later this year.
Yet Bitcoin stays below $112K after jobs report because risk assets sometimes fade “bad-news-is-good-news” when the growth signal looks too soft.
Three quick implications
Policy: A cut is near-certain, but markets may ask “how many more and why?”
Growth: Revisions hint at labor softness less fuel for a durable risk rally.
Liquidity: If yields whip around, financial conditions can tighten even with cuts.
Double-top says “respect the risk”
BTC spiked toward $113.3K on the first flush of cut bets, then lost the neckline near $111,982. That failed reclaim keeps the late-August double-top intact and price below the Ichimoku cloud, a one-two that typically caps upside. The first defense is the 200-day SMA near $101,700; a break/hold below would open a deeper retrace reminiscent of February’s multi-week slide toward the mid-$70Ks. In short, Bitcoin stays below $112K after jobs report because sellers are defending a clear technical line.
Levels that matter
Resistance: $111,982 (neckline), then $113,300 and $116,000 zone
Support: $105,000 (swing shelf), $101,700 (200-day), $98,000 (measured move window)
Why cuts might not equal lower rates (for long)
The September cut could nudge the 10-year down initially—typically BTC-friendly. But last year offers a cautionary tale: yields bottomed in mid-September and then climbed into January despite easing. With sticky inflation and ongoing fiscal worries, a fast yield rebound would tighten conditions and keep crypto rallies fragile. That’s another reason Bitcoin stays below $112K after jobs report even as the Fed turns easier.
What flips the script?
For a cleaner upside:
Reclaim and hold above the $111,982–$113,300 band with expanding spot volumes.
Core CPI cools convincingly (monthly prints nearer 0.2%), pressuring real yields lower.
Breadth improves across large caps (ETH, SOL, LINK) and risk proxies (small caps, ARKK).
Until then, expect two-way chop with downside bias. If the 200-day holds, range re-tests are likely; if it snaps, Bitcoin stays below $112K after jobs report could evolve into a broader de-risking phase before value buyers step in.
Conclusion
Macro may have given bulls a rate-cut story to lean on, but Bitcoin’s price action isn’t buying it yet. A neckline failure, cloud break, and ongoing growth concerns are keeping BTC capped below $112K even after the jobs report. Traders are treating the $101.7K 200-day moving average as the key near-term pivot that could dictate momentum.
The next test comes with upcoming CPI data, moves in long-end yields, and whether bulls can reclaim the $112K zone. Control of these levels will determine if current weakness is just a temporary shakeout or the opening act of a deeper correction.
FAQs
Q1 . Why didn’t BTC rally if the Fed is cutting?
A : Because bitcoin stays below $112K after jobs report amid growth worries and a bearish chart; cuts alone don’t guarantee easier financial conditions.
Q2 . What price level would turn sentiment?
A : A sustained reclaim of $111,982–$113,300 would weaken the “bitcoin stays below $112K after jobs report” narrative and invite momentum buyers.
Q3 . Is $101,700 really strong support?
A : It’s the 200-day SMA a widely watched level. If it holds, bitcoin stays below $112K after jobs report may morph into range-bound recovery.
Q4 . How do Treasury yields affect BTC now?
A : If the 10-year rebounds after the cut, conditions tighten and bitcoin stays below $112K after jobs report remains the base case.
Q5 . What upcoming data matters most?
A : Core CPI next week. A softer print could end the pattern where bitcoin stays below $112K after jobs report and help bulls retake resistance.